The reasoning for the speculation lies in what Adobe has mentioned about Flash 10.2. Apparently, Flash 10.2 introduces improved system resource management by using less CPU cycles during web video playback.
Engadget claims that Adobe revealed at the event that Android versions below Honeycomb could not support this feature. That means that if Adobe 10.2 is coming to smartphones at the release of the new version, then there will have to be smartphones running Android Honeycomb
The Adobe Flash update coming “in the next few weeks” could be in two weeks, or over a month away, so there is no way to really know when it will happen.
It could also be that the statement was not saying that Android Honeycomb will be available before launch, and that Flash 10.2 will be available for smartphones past the release date, once Google decides to release the Android Honeycomb version for smartphones, whenever that may be.
In the press release for the event, no mention was made of Flash 10.2 for smartphones. Mobile devices are mentioned, but that seems to imply tablets in this case. Let's hope Engadget heard something during the presentation, and is not misinterpreting the wording here.
I'll be keeping my eye out for more news on this, and continue with my occasional check for any system updates on my Nexus S.
Image from Engadget